Why You Do Not Trade Andy Sonnanstine

There was more to the article about the Rays organization's starting pitching posted last week, but it just became way too long. Consider this a continuation of that article, but with a different way of measuring how our starters performed this past year.

The questions I want to answer here are: Which Rays' starting pitchers pitched at the level of a #1 starter in 2008? Who was a #2 (at their level)? Who was a #3? And so forth. Was James Shields a "true number one starter"? What about Andy Sonnanstine? What was Edwin Jackson? Wade Davis? Alex Cobb? In our organization, the list goes on and on.

To answer these questions we first need to know: What is a #1-#5 starter? Luckily, Matthew Carruthon answered this in his article Rotation Slots by tRA+ at StatCorner. I'll let you read all the details and methodology used, but based on 2007-8 data he found the following:

#1 SP = tRA+ of 118 or higher, the average #1 has a 130 tRA+.
#2 SP = tRA+ from 106 to 117, the average #2 has a 112 tRA+.
#3 SP = tRA+ from 95 to 105, the average #3 has a 100 tRA+.
#4 SP = tRA+ from 86 to 94, the average #4 has a 91 tRA+.
#5 SP = tRA+ of 85 or lower, the average #5 has a 76 tRA+.

Using those numbers as our guidelines, let's take a look at the starting pitchers in the Rays system and see how well they pitched in 2008. Remember, StatCorner only covers down to full-season A ball, so there are no Hudson Valley, Princeton, DSL or VSL players (click the links to see stats for those pitchers). The data does not include innings pitched as a reliever, only as a starter. Age is as of today and pitchers are listed by level, so some appear more than once.

Here are the definitions of the stats we'll be using from the StatCorner Glossary:

xIP: Derived from xOuts, "xOuts stands for the expected number of outs a pitcher has generated based on his defense and park neutral outcomes." This is how much they pitched.

tRA: "tRA involves assigning run and out values to all events under a pitcher's control and coming up with an expected number of runs allowed and outs generated in a defense and park neutral environment. tRA is on a R/9 scale and does not involve any regression of the rates so while it should be more useful at determining a pitcher's true talent level, the best method for pitching projection is to use tRA*, the regressed version of tRA." This is how well they pitched.

tRA+: "tRA+ is equal to [((lgTRA - tRA) / lgTRA) + 1] * 100. A tRA+ of 150 represents that the pitcher's tRA was 50% better than league average. A tRA+ of 75 means the pitcher's tRA was 25% worse than average." This is how well they pitched relative to the rest of their respective leagues.

2008 #1-Level Starters:

Pitcher	Age	Level	xIP	tRA+
Hellickson, Jeremy	21.6	A+	76.7	148
Price, David	23.2	A+	33.3	142
AVERAGE #1 SP	xxxx	xxxx	xxxx	130
Talbot, Mitch	25.0	AAA	164.8	127
Davis, Wade	23.2	AAA	52.6	127
Sonnanstine, Andy	25.6	MLB	198.8	122
Price, David	23.2	AA	54.0	122
Shields, James	26.8	MLB	212.6	121
Cummings, Jeremy	32.0	AAA	81.7	120

We need to find a place on the big league roster (pen) for Talbot, and soon for Davis. Hellickson just dominated High-A. Not a bad first year for Price, pitched like a #1 at two levels and a #2 at a third. Cummings is a minor league free agent. Do not trade Andy Sonnanstine.

2008 #2-Level Starters:

Pitcher	Age	Level	xIP	tRA+
Rollins, Heath	23.4	A+	123.8	116
Davis, Wade	23.2	AA	105.6	113
Price, David	23.2	AAA	18.7	113
AVERAGE #2 SP	xxxx	xxxx	xxxx	112
Garza, Matt	24.9	MLB	181.2	111
Darcy, Jesse	23.3	A	102.5	111
Rollins, Heath	23.4	AA	23.0	110
Niemann, Jeff	25.7	AAA	127.9	109
McGee, Jacob	22.3	AA	74.6	108

Rollins handled his promotion well, and Davis improved when he moved up to AAA. Darcy was a little old for Low-A ball, but he had a good year and I think he's undervalued. It seems that trading the bat-flipper was a good idea. Niemann is ready in case of injury, and McGee didn't pitch too poorly considering his elbow was going out.

2008 #3-Level Starters:

Pitcher	Age	Level	xIP	tRA+
Kazmir, Scott	24.8	MLB	147.7	103
Hellickson, Jeremy	21.6	AA	73.6	102
AVERAGE #3 SP	xxxx	xxxx	xxxx	100
Houser, James	23.8	AA	88.9	100
Morse, Ryan	25.4	A+	102.9	98
De los Santos, Richard	24.4	AA	70.6	98
Cobb, Alexander	21.1	A	129.4	96

Kazmir was our fourth best starter, that's how you win 97 games. You hear how poorly Hellickson pitched after his promotion to AA, but a #3 isn't that bad for a 21 year old, expect him to do better in AA next year. De los Santos is a minor league free agent. Houser keeps missing time due to injury and Cobb, while very young, needs to improve next year at Charlotte.

2008 #4-Level Starters:

Pitcher	Age	Level	xIP	tRA+
AVERAGE #4 SP	xxxx	xxxx	xxxx	91
Hendrickson, Ben	27.8	AAA	141.5	87
Flores, Brian	23.8	A	108.8	87

I still believe Flores has a future out of the pen. Hendrickson is a minor league free agent.

2008 #5-Level Starters:

Pitcher	Age	Level	xIP	tRA+
Ragan, Jason	25.8	A	105.1	84
Jackson, Edwin	25.2	MLB	174.8	83
Walker, Matthew	22.2	A+	41.9	83
Mann, Brandon	24.4	A+	122.2	81
Hall, Jeremy	25.1	A	94.6	80
AVERAGE #5 SP	xxxx	xxxx	xxxx	76
Gibson, Glenn	21.1	A	57.4	66

There's Mr. Jackson, I wondered where he was hiding. Ragan was released, Walker was suspended, Gibson we've discussed before, and the rest aren't worth mentioning.

If you feel I'm putting too much emphasis on 2008 numbers when analyzing our pitchers I realize that some of these are small sample sizes and that pitchers have up years and down years. And you have to take into account if a pitcher is injured (McGee, Kazmir?) or recovering from an injury. However, 2008 results are the most recent and best numbers we have to assess a pitchers value. Would looking at 2007 be better? No, but just for fun lets look at a couple of pitchers numbers from 2007:

Pitcher	Age	Level	xIP	tRA+
Sonnanstine, Andy	24.6	AAA	70.3	130
Sonnanstine, Andy	24.6	MLB	131.8	108
Jackson, Edwin	24.2	MLB	163.9	77

Do not trade Andy Sonnanstine!