Beckham so far:
Year Age Lev AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPSProvided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table Generated 1/20/2010.
2008 18 Rook 177 30 43 12 0 2 14 5 1 13 43 .243 .297 .345 .642
2008 18 A_ss 6 5 2 1 0 0 0 1 0 2 1 .333 .556 .500 1.056
2009 19 A 491 58 135 33 4 5 63 13 10 34 116 .275 .328 .389 .717
2 Seasons 674 93 180 46 4 7 77 19 11 49 160 .267 .323 .378 .701
Upton in the minors:
Year Age Lev AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPSProvided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table Generated 1/20/2010.
2006 18 A 438 71 115 28 1 12 66 15 7 52 96 .263 .343 .413 .757
2007 19 A_adv 126 27 43 6 2 5 17 9 4 19 28 .341 .433 .540 .973
2007 19 AA 259 48 80 17 4 13 53 10 7 37 51 .309 .399 .556 .955
2008 20 AAA 61 13 17 3 1 3 10 2 0 7 26 .279 .353 .508 .861
2009 21 A_adv 8 1 2 0 0 1 6 1 0 1 3 .250 .333 .625 .958
4 Seasons 892 160 257 54 8 34 152 37 18 116 204 .288 .373 .481 .854
Upton in the majors:
Year Age Lg AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPSProvided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table Generated 1/20/2010.
2007 19 NL 140 17 31 8 3 2 11 2 0 11 37 .221 .283 .364 .647
2008 20 NL 356 52 89 19 6 15 42 1 4 54 121 .250 .353 .463 .816
2009 21 NL 526 84 158 30 7 26 86 20 5 55 137 .300 .366 .532 .899
3 Seasons 1022 153 278 57 16 43 139 23 9 120 295 .272 .350 .485 .836
Beckham's best OPS (other than the 6 AB's at Hudson Valley) was .717 at age 19 in the Sally. Upton's worst OPS was .647 at age 19 in the National League. OPS isn't everything, but still.
Doug - thanks for putting up the stats. Upton was in the big leagues at 19 years old. The best I can tell, Beckham who will soon be 20 is still a few years away from that level. My point for bringing up Upton was not to knock Beckham who I think is going to be a very good player for Tampa. My point is that you expect premier production from that pick at an early age - not years of grinding in the minor leagues.
ReplyDeleteTo be fair to the Rays, even with the first pick it is not always clear sometimes whether or not you have the next Ken Griffey Jr or the next Matt Bush. When Upton was drafted for example, there were many in baseball who felt Camron Maybin was a better prospect. Maybin has played in the majors but he has had far less success that Upton has so far enjoyed. One thing I do know is that nobody has a perfect crystal ball. Baseball is the hardest sport to project - even with the first pick in the draft.
Daniel, no problem, I understood your point. I just wanted everyone to see the stats together so they wouldn't have to click around and try to remember what they saw. And I agree, for 6 million plus, you're expecting an Upton.
ReplyDeletePlus, with the Rays being a solid team now, there won't be anymore top 5 picks. No more choosing between Beckham and Posey and Alvarez, now we take a shot with a LeVon type. We really needed to get that pick right. Maybe someday we'll look back and smile over Beckham's pick, but so far...
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ReplyDeleteI like it when they draft college players. It seems alot less riskier. A guy I think the Rays should draft is Bryce Brentz.
ReplyDeleteIt's less risky in the sense that college players are more likely to make the majors, but in terms of making an impact it's roughly even. In the top 10 of the 2006 draft for example, Evan Longoria and Tim Lincecum were college picks, but so were Greg Reynolds and Drew Stubbs. Clayton Kershaw was a high school pick, but so was Billy Rowell.
ReplyDeleteThe draft is a hit-or-miss thing either way, and while it seems the current regime has had better luck drafting from the college ranks, I don't think it's anything more than a fluke.
When you're picking as high as the Rays did in 2008(or anywhere in the top 5 or 10), you're going to pay out a huge bonus regardless. Beckham actually got more money than Pedro Alvarez, although the Alvarez negotiations were much more disputed and drawn-out. The Orioles signed Brian Matusz for 3.2 million, a little more than half of the 6 million Beckham got(Beckham also qualified for two-sport status meaning his bonus could be paid out over a slightly longer period of time).
In general, I tend to lean toward high school draftees, but in the first round, let alone #1 overall, it's best player available no matter what your ideology. I happened to like Pedro Alvarez that year, but even those who preferred him or Posey didn't feel like taking Beckham was a big mistake. Obviously the performances since then might contradict that, but also remember that Beckham would be a college junior in 2010. If you translate his pro numbers and scouting to college ranks, would he be the #1 pick in the 2010 draft? I don't think so.
This is all very stream-of-consciousness, but the point I'm trying to make is that at the very top of the draft, HS/college isn't much of a concern to me. Again, personally I wanted Alvarez, but back in 2003 I preferred Delmon Young to Rickie Weeks.