2010 Draft Review: High School

My internet has been spotty lately, so that's why this post is just getting up now. The Rundown posts will also return this week.

High School(21): Josh Sale(1), Justin O'Conner(1), Drew Vettleson(1s), Ryan Brett(3), Ian Kendall(5), Michael Lorenzen(7), Jake DePew(9), Deshun Dixon(10), Travis Flores(11), Brandon Henderson(15), Daniel Poncedeleon(24), Matthew Spann(25), Julio Espinoza(28), Scott Simon(33), Spencer Davis(35), DeMondre Arnold(37), Will Anderson(38), Preston Overbey(42), Blake Freeman(45), Hector Montes(47)

The Rays went position player-heavy in the high school ranks, with only 1 pitcher out of the first 9 high schoolers taken. That makes it pretty important to sign that pitcher, Ian Kendall, which appears to be close to a lock. The Rays went into the northwest early and often, plucking Josh Sale, Drew Vettleson, Ryan Brett, and Scott Simon out of Washington state, and Kendall from Oregon.

The perfect-world scenario, of course, is that the Rays sign all of these guys. In a more realistic scenario, the Rays have to sign Sale, O'Conner(which is done), Vettleson, Brett, Kendall, and then one of Lorenzen and DePew. Lorenzen's a potential 5-tool outfielder, while DePew would give the Rays a third well-regarded catcher at the short-season level (along with O'Conner and 2009 4th-rounder Luke Bailey). None of the top 5 high schoolers have given any indications they won't sign. There aren't any of the questions that were there with LeVon Washington or Kenny Diekroeger last year, and they likely won't hold out for bonuses as high as Bailey, Todd Glaesmann, and Luke Bailey did last summer.

Deshun Dixon and Travis Flores were drafted in the range where they should go pro. Dixon's brother Rashun was taken in the 10th round out of high school and signed with Oakland for $600,000 in 2008, and Deshun probably won't need a bonus quite that high. Flores has big-time power and will have some helium in the system if he makes the adjustment and hits for more consistent contact.

After that, it starts to get dicey. Henderson reminds me a bit of Jason McEachern, who was the 13th round pick in 2008. He's from the Carolinas, slender(6'2" 170), has a polished repertoire, and his fastball needs time to develop. Henderson's fastball, in the mid-80s, is a little worse than McEachern's, and he's left-handed, but otherwise, they're similar. Henderson is committed to a small school, Gardner-Webb, and I'd guess he's 50/50 to sign. Daniel Poncedeleon will probably attend Arizona, but he has the best present stuff of all the HS pitchers taken besides Kendall. Matthew Spann, a 6'8" lefty, has already signed.

Any high schoolers signing after Spann would be gravy. The two I like best are Scott Simon, a huge RHP from Washington, and Preston Overbey, a 3B from Tennessee. Simon's a near-lock to attend Washington State, though, and has said it would take life-altering money to lure him away. Overbey's also unlikely to sign, simply because 42nd round picks out of high school very rarely sign.

Tomorrow I'll look over the college and JuCo picks.