What I want to do is compare one of the players the Rays acquired, Hak-Ju Lee, with former number one overall pick Tim Beckham. There are a number of similarities between the two. Both have played exclusively shortstop in the field. Both were born in 1990, Beckham in January and Lee in November, making Lee approximately one year younger. Both began their careers as 18 year-olds in short-season ball, Beckham with Princeton in the Appalachian League (plus 2 games with Hudson Valley) and Lee in the Northwest League (our equivalent of Hudson Valley). As 19 year-olds both played low-A ball, Beckham in the South Atlantic League and Lee in the Midwest League. In his third professional season Beckham played for Charlotte in the Florida State League, a spot Lee is expected to fill this season as Beckham moves up to Montgomery.
Given the similarities in position and age-to-level, let's take a look at how they have performed. We'll look at the experts' opinions later, but first let's view their raw stats. Offensive stats, first Beckham:
Year Age Leag Lev AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS 2008 18 APPY Rk 177 30 43 12 0 2 14 5 1 13 43 .243 .297 .345 .642 2008 18 NYPL A- 6 5 2 1 0 0 0 1 0 2 1 .333 .556 .500 1.056 2009 19 SALL A 491 58 135 33 4 5 63 13 10 34 116 .275 .328 .389 .717 2010 20 FLOR A+ 465 68 119 23 5 5 57 22 14 62 119 .256 .346 .359 .705 3 Seasons 1139 161 299 69 9 12 134 41 25 111 279 .263 .332 .371 .703And then Lee:
Year Age Leag Lev AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS 2009 18 NORW A- 264 56 87 14 2 2 33 25 8 31 50 .330 .399 .420 .820 2010 19 MIDW A 485 85 137 22 4 1 40 32 7 49 86 .282 .354 .351 .704 2 Seasons 749 141 224 36 6 3 73 57 15 80 136 .299 .370 .375 .745Lee is better across the board, especially when you consider his first season was against more advanced competition in short-season A ball while Beckham was in Rookie-advanced. But Beckham has shown the ability to hit above league-average in high-A ball, where Lee has yet to play.
Speaking of league average, here are the average batters ages and slash lines (batting average/OBP/SLG) for each league they have played in during the season they played:
League - Year - Player AvAge BA OBP SLG Appalachian - 2008 - Beckham 20.3 .262 .331 .387 Northwest - 2009 - Lee 21.3 .264 .342 .380 South Atlantic - 2009 - Beckham 21.5 .254 .324 .368 Midwest - 2010 - Lee 21.4 .257 .333 .384 Florida State - 2010 - Beckham 22.7 .255 .324 .364As 18 year-olds, Beckham was below average across the board in the Appalachian League while Lee above average playing against players a full year older and a level higher than Beckham played against. As 19 year-olds both players hit above league average on all counts except Lee's slugging. As a 20 year-old Beckham was above average in batting average and OBP but below average in slugging.
When you look their career numbers in the context of the age and level of their competition, figure in walk and strikeout rates and baserunning (SB's and CS's only), offensively Lee clearly is the better player so far.
Now lets look at the raw defensive numbers, first Beckham:
Year Age Team Leag Lev Pos G Ch PO A E DP Fld% RF/G 2008 18 Princeton APPY Rk SS 37 171 62 96 13 15 .924 4.27 2008 18 Hudson Valley NYPL A- SS 2 7 3 4 0 1 1.000 3.50 2009 19 Bowling Green SALL A SS 117 531 160 328 43 64 .919 4.17 2010 20 Charlotte FLOR A+ SS 121 488 167 296 25 62 .949 3.83 3 Seasons 277 1197 392 724 81 142 .932 4.03And then Lee:
Year Age Team Leag Lev Pos G Ch PO A E DP Fld% RF/G 2009 18 Boise NORW A- SS 61 334 92 215 27 35 .919 5.03 2010 19 Peoria MIDW A SS 118 561 178 349 34 73 .939 4.47 2 Seasons 179 895 270 564 61 108 .932 4.66Not much to like here from either of them. Remember how similar I mentioned they were, look at those identical career fielding percentages. Lee has a pretty big advantage in range factor (RF/G), but fielding data isn't very advanced at this point, particularly in lower levels of the minor leagues.
Here is what Jim Callis of BaseballAmerica had to say in a recent interview with Kevin on each players' defensive abilities and who is the better prospect:
Lee is definitely a better prospect than Beckham. He's still two to three years away from the majors, but he's a much better defender (and will stay at shortstop), a much better runner, and I think he'll hit more. Beckham has more power but isn't going to stick at shortstop.For another expert opinion, here is what John Sickels had to say about Beckham in an interview with Kevin back in December:
...
I'd be worried about Beckham. He's not a bust like Bush, but Beckham can't stay at shortstop and he hasn't hit consistently or shown much power. He will be just 21 this year, so he still has time, but right now he looks like a guy who's going to have to play third base and won't have the bat (especially from a power standpoint) for the position.
He’s made a little progress but I can’t see any way to spin him overall as anything but a big disappointment. Right now I think they should be happy if he becomes a useful role player, and even that isn’t a guarantee at all.Based on the raw stats and the expert opinions, what do you think? Does anyone still see a case for Beckham over Lee?
Note: I haven't gone back and revised my personal Top 30 list from back in November, where I ranked Beckham as the Rays #20 overall prospect. If I reworked the list to include the players we've added since then, I would put Lee around #10 and Beckham around #23.
Just with the bat alone, I don't see as much of a gap as maybe others. A little more pop and K's from Beckham at the expense of a few more singles and walks from Lee seems like a decent trade.
ReplyDeleteBut if Lee is that much better of a defender and baserunner, and Beckham has to move to corner IF/OF, then yeah it seems like an easy pick at this point.
I pretty much agree Jay. My concern is AA pitchers are going to see a guy who strikes out a lot and doesn't take a ton of walks. They will have the ability to get him to swing at bad pitches more than A-ball pitchers did, which will erase some of Beckham's power. And Lee is a couple of inches taller and a year younger, so he could add some strength. But the clincher for me is if Beckham can't stay on short as Callis believes. His bat might be passable at SS but not at 3B.
ReplyDeleteAlso, wish I would have included the league averages in each players chart so you didn't have to look up and down and try to match them up. Sorry, will try to make it easier to read next time.
The Midwest and Florida Leagues are tough hitter's leagues. If Beckham is going to make a case for himself, this would seem to be the optimal year. Bigger long term is whether either of these guys can push Brignac off at MLB within the next 6 seasons.
ReplyDeleteLee have a two-year military obligation. That will be a problem some years later.
ReplyDeleteGood point anon, that's why I posted the league avg's. With us and Lake County moving from the Sally to the Midwest, I think we'll need to see how they trend going forward. There is also the differences from year to year in the quality of pitchers and hitters from the various orgs, so it's hard to pin down. The FSL is definitely a pitchers league. I didn't go into the Brignac issue, if he's even still there, or who's in between, the article was long enough just comparing Lee and Beckham :).
ReplyDeleteCLE's Choo was around 28 when his team won the Asian Games and he was exempted, so I think we've got plenty of time to worry about that. But it is a valid point H22.
Choo didn't join Korean National team at 23 years old in 2006. And I think there is a very little chance for Lee to join the team at 2014 too. Maybe the only chance to avoid military obligation will be a 2018 Asian Games.
ReplyDeleteLee expressed concern over the military duty at recent interview. Choo expressed his concern many thmes before avoiding and he once thought an applying American nationality. It's very complicated thing for Korean.
Of course, as you mentioned, we have a lot of times and anything can happen. What's the use of worrying? I just hope he feel confortable for that and focus hs on baseball.
Thanks for the explanation Homein22. Since you seem to understand the Korean military obligation requirements, could you explain them for us here in the US? How long can a guy wait, are there ways out of it, etc. Thanks in advance.
ReplyDeleteI dont care what stats you put up, According to Draysbay, he is going to be the best SS ever. DOnt bash him.
ReplyDeleteBeckham that is.
ReplyDeleteI understand the Korean military obligation requirements, because I am Korean. As you see, my English is too poor to explain that exactly and properly. I am much concerned about that.
ReplyDeleteBut, I will try it and hope you or someone correct my post. It will help to clear up any misapprehensions due to my poor English.
It's my pleasure to exchange of information about Rays and their prospect. and It will be my little reward for the joyness from the site.