Alex Cobb was called up to the Tampa Bay Rays to start Sunday’s game against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Cobb is 3-0 with a 2.05 ERA and 29 strikeouts through 4 starts this season. 
Durham Bulls 3, Louisville Bats 2
Jacksonville Suns 3, Montgomery Biscuits 7
Jupiter Hammerheads 0, Charlotte Stone Crabs 1
Great Lakes Loons 2, Bowling Green Hot Rods 5
The first announcement is that I’ve added Henry Wrigley to the hitting prospect chart as he has shown good power and contact skills in his first plate appearances. With the possible addition of other hitting candidates, like for instance John Matulia and Stephen Vogt, I’ll wait another two weeks. And while – not just for Wrigley – the sample sizes still are very small, we can read much more out of the data now than two weeks ago.
Hitting prospects stats overview
The overall numbers of the top 15 hitting prospects pre season are still fairly strong (.815 OPS, .373 wOBA), but they are highly influenced by Hak-Ju Lee’s phenomenal start to the season (1.259 OPS, 0.524 wOBA). Therefore, he is my prospect of the week. On the other hand, the performances of other top hitting prospects, namely Desmond Jennings, Luke Bailey, Tim Beckham and Derek Dietrich, cooled off a bit. Especially the Hot Rods prospects struggled over the last two weeks with the overall team OPS falling to .647 (14th of 16 midwest league teams). With Todd Glaesmann (while improving a bit), Kevin Kiermaier and Cody Rogers having an OPS of .575 or lower, especially the teams’ outfielders have been underperforming.
(Click at the image for a larger view)
1) Hak-Ju Lee … Just wow! But more on him later.
2) Brandon Guyer … While Desmond Jennings’ hot start cooled off a bit (mostley cause of bad luck), Guyer still smashes AAA pitching. With better plate discipline he could become a major league starter. The tools are there.
3) Tyler Bortnick … The other part of the impressive Stone Crabs middle infield plays extraordinary in his own way. A .398 wOBA with excellent plate discipline (13.3 BB%, 12 K%; 9:3 BB:K ratio in his last 52 PA’s). He looks very solid on the basepaths as well (5 SB; 0 caught attempts), while a bit more power would be great (0 HR, 0.104 ISO)
1) Matt Sweeney … His already slim prospect status is dwindling very fast. A wOBA of 0.222 (only 0.171 in his last 42 PA’s) for a guy who doesn’t play at a premium position and repeats the level! That’s not encouraging.
2) Luke Bailey … Bailey cooled off significantly since his hot start. His wOBA for the first 23 PA (0.497) compared to the next 28 PA (0.196) shows that. Especially the shaky K:BB ratio (15:4) concerns me. But, don’t worry yet, still small sample size.
3) Cody Rogers … While not decreasing over his slow season start, he doesn’t show lots of improvements either.
The prospect of the week: Hak-Ju Lee
Early impressions suggest that Keith Law might has been right after all. He stated that Lee is THE price out of the Matt Garza package for the Rays (while still rating Archer higher in his prospect rankings). And while Chris Archer and Robinson Chirinos struggle out of the gate, Hak-Yu Lee looked even more impressive than Brandon Guyer who himself shows great power and contact in AAA.
Lets see what Kevin wrote about him in the Rays Prospect Guide for ’11:
“Lee projects to be a well-above average defensive shortstop because of his plus-plus speed and, despite Tommy Johny surgery before he was signed, a strong throwing arm. Rated the best defensive shortstop in the Midwest League, he's a smooth fielder with very good range and reactions. He is prone to errors (34 total last season) on easy-looking plays, but that's correctable and should improve as he plays more.
At the plate, he profiles as a top-of-the-order hitter. He makes good contact from the left side, and his strikeout rate actually declined as he was promoted to full-season ball. His .330 batting average in the Northwest League was helped by a .397 BABIP, but even as that regressed last year, his .282 mark with Peoria was very good considering his age and environment. He has solid plate discipline and will draw at least an average number of walks. Once he's on base, he uses his speed well. In 190 games over two seasons, he's stolen 57 bases and been caught 15 times.
The drawback to Lee's game is that he currently hits for very little power and doesn't project to hit for much more.”
Other scouting reports (like for example this one and this one) confirm Kevin’s look at Lee and give some more very interesting details. Lee offers plus speed (reportedly 11 seconds over 100m) and agility, a plus arm, quick catch and release tools, above average contact tools and plate discipline as well as the tools for average future power. He recognizes off-speed pitches fairly early, has a good eye for the strike zone and should improve his pitch selection once he gets more polished. The bat speed and hand-eye coordination are good enough in order to turn on fastballs as well. His quick bat makes him a legitimate threat to the gaps while his projected lack of much homerun power seems to be the only knock I can find on him. His speed allows him to become an above average threat at the basepaths as well. Summarized he is a very well rounded prospect at a premium position who projects for at least average defense at short, a bat that can play at the top of the order and above average speed at the basepaths.
So, what do his stats tell us? They tell us that Lee is already very polished despite his young age for A+ and for him already having had TJ Surgery (on his throwing elbow). He takes his share of walks (12 BB%; even 13 BB% with yesterdays game included) while striking out with more than an acceptable rate (16 K%). He shows excellent contact skills and even some power (already 2 HR, which is one more than in all of ’10). All of the above has led to a whopping 0.524 wOBA and an OPS of 1.259. And while he’ll regress a bit (0.531 BABIP), I think he’ll be more than fine in the long run.
I do think the Rays will play him one level every year, but you never know. If he keeps up hitting the way he has done, they could promote him after about 2/3 of the season. Nevertheless, his ETA seems to be late 2013. In his way in the depth chart are Reid Brignac and Sean Rodriguez at the major league level as well as Tim Beckham in AAA. But, as Lee projects better offensively as Brignac, better defensively as Beckham and as Rodriguez is best suited to 2B, he shouldn’t be blocked if fulfilling his potential. At the latest starting with the 2014 season he looks to be the Rays shortstop of the present (and the future) … and he has the ceiling to be a quality one.
Glossary
All of the stats provided above are excluding the stats from the previous day. I preferrably use 3 sources for the stats. Click on each stat for its explanation:
The following transactions have occurred today effecting the Rays minor league system:
The Stone Crabs were 1-5 on the week and have fallen to 7-13 on the season. They are currently in fifth place in the division. Greg Sexton saw his hitting steak come to an end at twelve games on Wednesday night. Hak-Ju Lee is still riding a 10 game hitting steak, hitting safely in all games played since being activated from the disabled list. The Stone Crabs also set the franchise record for hits in a game when they collected 18 hits on April 26 against Fort Myers, beating the previous record of 17 from 2010.
Team W L RS RA pW pL Dif Tampa Bay Rays 12 11 87 86 12 11 0 Durham Bulls 11 9 87 84 10 10 +1 Montgomery Biscuits 8 12 107 106 10 10 -2 Charlotte Stone Crabs 7 13 103 117 9 11 -2 Bowling Green Hot Rods 10 9 86 97 8 11 +2 Hudson Valley Renegades 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Princeton Rays 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 GCL Rays 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 VSL Rays 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 DSL Rays 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Durham Bulls rained out
Year Age Team Lv W L ERA G GS IP WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 2006 20 Aberdeen A- 6 2 1.83 25 0 44.1 1.128 7.3 0.6 2.8 6.7 2007 21 Delmarva A 3 5 4.14 48 0 63.0 1.286 9.0 0.6 2.6 8.4 2007 21 Frederick A+ 0 0 0.00 1 0 1.0 1.000 9.0 0.0 0.0 18.0 2008 22 Frederick A+ 1 0 2.70 30 1 43.1 1.177 7.5 0.6 3.1 9.1 2008 22 Bowie AA 0 0 3.63 15 0 22.1 1.343 10.5 0.8 1.6 4.4 2009 23 Bowie AA 2 2 2.69 52 0 60.1 1.260 7.2 0.4 4.2 8.2 2010 24 Bowie AA 2 1 3.79 39 0 40.1 1.364 8.7 1.3 3.6 8.7 5 Seasons 14 10 3.11 210 1 274.2 1.252 8.2 0.7 3.1 8.0
The Bowling Green Hot Rods were 3-3 on the week and are now 10-9 on the season. The Hot Rods are currently in fourth place in the division, 2 games back from the leader. Despite going .500 on the week, the Hot Rods offense struggled, dropping to the bottom of many of the offensive categories. Kevin Kiermaier finished the week on a five game hitting streak.
Team League G Avg LgRank Capacity %Cap Tampa Bay American 13 16,816 12th/14 36,048 47% Durham International 9 5,763 5th/14 10,000 58% Montgomery Southern 10 4,233 2nd/10 7,000 60% Charlotte Florida State 8 2,798 2nd/12 6,823 41% Bowling Green Midwest 8 2,576 4th/16 4,559 57% Hudson Valley New York-Penn 0 0 -th/14 4,494 --% Princeton Appalachian 0 0 -th/10 3,000 --%For comparison, here were the final figures from 2010:
Team League G Avg LgRank Capacity %Cap Tampa Bay American 81 23,024 9th/14 36,048 64% Durham International 71 7,043 8th/14 10,000 70% Montgomery Southern 67 4,027 3rd/10 7,000 58% Charlotte Florida State 64 2,678 1st/12 6,823 39% Bowling Green Midwest 67 3,513 9th/16 4,559 77% Hudson Valley New York-Penn 35 4,178 6th/14 4,494 93% Princeton Appalachian 31 869 6th/10 3,000 29%And from 2009:
Team League G Avg LgRank Capacity %Cap Tampa Bay American 81 23,148 11th/14 36,048 64% Durham International 72 6,783 8th/14 10,000 68% Montgomery Southern 66 4,043 3rd/10 7,000 58% Charlotte Florida State 60 2,855 1st/12 6,823 42% Bowling Green South Atlantic 66 3,530 8th/16 4,559 77% Hudson Valley New York-Penn 35 4,609 5th/14 4,494 103% Princeton Appalachian 28 926 7th/10 3,000 31%
ouisville Bats 8, Durham Bulls 3
Durham Bulls 5, Norfolk Tides 6 (11 innings)Montgomery Biscuits 1, Mississippi Braves 4
Durham Bulls 6, Norfolk Tides 4Montgomery Biscuits 4, Mississippi Braves 7Charlotte Stone Crabs 4, Fort Myers Miracle 2Bowling Green Hot Rods 1, Lake County Captains 0 (Game One)Bowling Green Hot Rods 4, Lake County Captains 14 (Game Two)
The Durham Bulls finished the week with a 4-3 record which improved them to 10-6 on the year. They are currently in second place in the division, a half game back from leader. Alex Torres was named the Pitcher of the Week on Monday after holding a 0.00 through two starts to begin the season. Another great performance this week came from the bat of Justin Ruggiano which included back to back two home run nights on April 18 and 19.
Charlotte Knights 5, Durham Bulls 6Jackson Generals 2, Montgomery Biscuits 1St. Lucie Mets 7, Charlotte Stone Crabs 2Bowling Green Hot Rods, Lake County Captains
The Montgomery Biscuits were 3-4 on the week. They are currently 5-9 on the season and are in fourth place in the South Division, 4 games out of first place.
First I’m going to list the 29 pitching prospects I’ll post in the series over the year. Before taking wishes for additional prospects I should add, I wanted to point out that I’m following all of the other minor league players and especially the left off Bowling Green pitching prospects (namely C.J. Riefenhauser, George Jensen, Jimmy Patterson, Austin Hubbard, Steve Hiscock, Omar Bencomo and Nate Garcia) very closely. I’m going to add any of them when performing well over a bigger time frame.
Overall Impressions
Before I say anything about this years’ performances you always have to keep in mind that the analysis has to be taken with a grain of salt as the sample size I’m able to look at is very small. Nevertheless I’m going to try to read something out of the performances thus far.
Before the minor league season started I was especially eager about the pitching prospects in the system. Especially the Biscuits rotation with Matt Moore, Chris Archer, Joe Cruz, Nick Barnese and Shane Dyer was supposed to dominate opposing hitters from the beginning. The top 15 pitching prospects pre season, however, haven’t done so well thus far. They’ve combined for an ERA of 5.74. Especially the above mentioned Biscuits prospects have a combined ERA of 8.17 in 54 IP. But, not all things are bad. The top 15 prospects have a FIP of 4.38 which is considerably lower than their ERA. Their BABIP (0.322) also suggests that they’ve been unlucky thus far and they strike out more than one batter per inning (9.3 K/9). Overall, while having hoped for a better start, the sample size still is very small and the stuff seams to still be there. Let’s give them some more time.
Pitching prospects stats overview
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As mentioned before, lots of the systems’ top pitching prospects have been hit hard so far. But, as for example Matt Moore and Chris Archers FIP and BABIP suggest, they have been recipients of some bad luck. I’m a bit more concerned about some of the other prospects: Can Alex Colome develop his secondary offerings in order to succeed at the higher levels? Does Braulio Lara show enough command in order to develop into a starting role? Will Nick Barnese and Joe Cruz manage the transition to AA-ball?
On the positive side, especially the new top duo knocking on the major league door has performed exceptionally well. Alex Torres and Joe Cruz have been unhittable so far in their first full seasons at AAA. Their counterparts in the AAA bullpen, namely Brandon Gomes and Rob Delaney (together with older pitchers like Mike Ekstrom (the cutoff date for me considering players as prospects was 1/1/94), Cory Wade and especially Dirk Hayhurst), make the major league pitching depth look extraordinary for this year as well.
In the lower minors especially Enny Romero and Alex Koronis have had great starts to the season. Romero dominated in his first 2 starts (9.2 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 13 SO) while having had a bit of a rocky start thereafter and Alex Koronis really looks promising in a starting role.
1) Alex Cobb … He needed to show that he can pitch well in AAA as his stuff may lack a bit behind other Rays top prospects. But, he knows how to use it and his pitchability is Hellickson-like. I’m really impressed by his start to the season.
2) Alex Torres … While being a bit undersized his stuff is excellent. His fastball and change already are plus offerings with the chance of becoming plus-plus. The question mark was his command and control. So far, 3.5 BB/9 are okay. If he keeps this up he could be the next in line for a rotation spot in St. Pete.
3) Alex Koronis … Not a lot of people thought Alex Koronis’ offspeed stuff was good enough for him managing a starting role. And while you can’t say that he can be a starter after only 3 starts, he showed some promises. If he keeps up being that sharp (1.6 BB/9) he could make a name of himself as a starting pitching prospect.
3 prospects falling
1) Joe Cruz … 15.55 ERA, 16.4 H/9, 7.4 BB/9 … I know he’ll do better, but those numbers don’t look good.
2) Nick Barnese … Are his secondary pitches going to develop? If not, he could have real problems succeeding in AA and above.
3) Alex Colome … His last start was much better (especially his control), but for him in order to become a top starting pitching prospect he needs to show development in his command as well as in his change.
The prospect of the week: Alex Torres
It really was a coin toss between Alex Cobb and Alex Torres. But, in the end I’ve decided to take a deeper look at Alex Torres. For him in order to become a legitimate starting pitching prospect in this pitching heavy organization he has to show some progress. He especially has to show some progress with his command and control. If he doesn’t, prospects like Alex Cobb, Matt Moore and Chris Archer pass him really quickly and he has to look for a starting gig in another organization or move to the pen.
Kevin described his stuff pretty accurate in the Rays Prospect Guide for ’11:
He's listed at 5-10/175, but don't let the slight frame fool you. Torres generates a ton of life on his 91-93 mph fastball, leading to weak contact and groundballs. He has a very deceptive delivery that adds to the effectiveness of a change-up that's already a plus pitch, and he's shown good feel for his curveball, a potential third plus pitch.
He, however, also pointed out the question marks of Alex Torres. Can he repeat his deliver on a consistent basis, thus limiting his walks? Can he hold up in a starting role despite his smallish frame?
Thus far, he showed some promise with his control again, after lowering his BB/9 numbers from 4.9 in ’09 to 4.4 in ’10, he now – albeit after only 3 starts – at 3.5 BB/9. And his stuff looks better than ever. He has been hittable by independent league pitching (4.9 H/9), he strikes out a whopping 15.8 K/9 and his FIP (0.78) sits nearly as lower as his ERA (0.59).
If Alex Torres can keep this up and continue to show some polish and thus that he in fact is a major league starter, he seems to be the next starter in line. And … looking at Jeff Niemann’s struggles (fingers crossed that he’ll turn it around) a callup for him could come rather sooner than later.
Glossary
The stats from StatCorner and FanGraphs provided above are excluding the stats from the previous day. I preferrably use 3 sources for the stats. Click on each stat for its explanation:
Charlotte Knights 6, Durham Bulls 4Jackson Generals 7, Montgomery Biscuits 3St. Lucie Mets 10, Charlotte Stone Crabs 7Bowling Green Hot Rods 5, Lake County Captains 9
The Stone Crabs finished the week with a 2-5 record and have dropped to 6-8 overall on the season. They are currently in three way tie with Bradenton and Jupiter for third place in the South Division. Four of the Stone Crabs losses this week came at the hands of the league leading St. Lucie Mets who have only lost two games this season. Four of the losses were one run losses. Hak-Ju Lee made his debut with the Stone Crabs on Sunday and has been red hot, hitting in all four of his games. Greg Sexton has also been on fire, riding a seven game hitting streak at week’s end.
Charlotte Knights 8, Durham Bulls 3Jackson Generals 10, Montgomery Biscuits 11St. Lucie Mets 7, Charlotte Stone Crabs 6Bowling Green Hot Rods 1, Dayton Dragons 4
The Bowling Green Hot Rods kicked off the 2011 season by going 7-6 since opening day. The Hot Rods are currently in fourth place in the divison, a game and a half out of first place.