2011 Draft: Day One Wrap-Up

A very hectic day one has come and gone, so I'll try to summarize things as best I can, hitting each of the picks and what the immediate and long-term outlook for these guys are. All told, with their first ten picks the Rays took six high schoolers, three college players, and a junior college player.

24th overall - Taylor Guerrieri, RHP, Spring Valley HS (SC): Guerrieri was rated as one of the top prep pitchers in the country, one a tier below Dylan Bundy and Archie Bradley. He didn't slip to the Rays based on his stuff, which is centered around a fastball that he's pumped up to 98 mph (though he generally works in the 92-95 range) and a curveball that's shown plus potential. He's flashed a change-up but like virtually every high schooler it lags behind his other offerings. He has also experimented with a cutter. He's athletic at 6-3/195 with long arms. He repeats his delivery well though he's had some trouble throwing strikes at times. The reason he did fall to the Rays may be based on questions about his make-up. He had to switch high schools due to an off-the-field incident and some question his maturity. I don't see it as a huge concern, countless pitchers have had make-up issues and done just fine in the pros (Clay Buchholz and Kyle Drabek spring to mind). I thought the Rays got a very good value at this pick.

31st overall - Mikie Mahtook, OF, Louisiana State University: Like Guerrieri, Mahtook slid further than most projected. He's athletic but may not have the pure footspeed to play centerfield in the pros. His arm is average at best, so if he moves to a corner spot it'll have to be left field. Mahtook has stung the ball his entire career with the Tigers, and the new bats that have suppressed offense around the NCAA haven't had a huge impact on him as he hit .383/.496/.709 this year.

32nd overall - Jake Hager, SS, Sierra Vista HS (NV): This is where the Rays made their first "reach." Hager reminds me a little bit of Ryan Brett from the 2009 draft, and Brett was a third-rounder. Hager is bigger and can play shortstop, but it's not clear what his biggest strength is. He's an average runner but fields well, has a pretty good arm, is a decent pure hitter and should have some gap power. I'm not sure he was worth of this pick, though, and the Rays left some quality shortstops on the board in Connor Barron and Tyler Greene.

38th overall - Brandon Martin, SS, Santiago HS (CA): Essentially, Martin is a more athletic version of Hager. Martin didn't really come into the picture until his senior year when he flashed improved strengths at the plate. He still doesn't project to hit for a ton of power, but there's potential there if he continues to add strength. He's probably only an average runner although he's quick, allowing him to succeed at shortstop. Like Hager, Martin is a hard worker with good make-up.

41st overall - Tyler Goeddel, 3B, St. Francis HS (CA): The younger brother of Mets minor-league pitcher Erik Goeddel, Tyler is a projectable 6-4/190 who, if third base doesn't work out, has the speed to play center field (at least for now). If he focuses on adding more power, his speed could slip a little bit and limit him to a corner. He missed time with mono this spring so it was tough to get a good look at him, since he may not have been at full strength. He has nice bat speed but needs to add strength to hit for legitimate power.

42nd overall - Jeff Ames, RHP, Lower Columbia JC (WA): A JuCo pitcher from the state of Washington, Ames' best pitch is clearly his fastball. He's gotten it up to 97 in the past and held in the 92-95 range this spring. In addition to the pure velocity, it gets very nice movement making it a tough pitch to square up. His curveball and change-up lag behind though, and he may eventually wind up in the bullpen if those offerings don't develop enough.

52nd overall - Blake Snell, LHP, Shorewood HS (WA): Tough to believe the Rays took a Washington high schooler, I know. Snell is 6-4/190 though may not be as projectable as that sounds due to his body type. He's gotten his fastball up to 94 but it's usually in the 88-92 range. Honestly, I liked Snell as a third or fourth rounder, but in the supplemental round it smells like a signability pick. He didn't academically qualify for the University of Washington so he was considering an easy sign.

56th overall - Kes Carter, OF, Western Kentucky: Carter is toolsier than most college prospects, offering solid grades across the board. He has a nice swing from the left side and has a patient approach to make the pitcher throw him something he likes. He's struggled against left-handed pitching and might be a future platooner. His swing is more contact-oriented, but he has enough strength to hit for averrage power. He's an above-average runner who should stick in CF.

59th overall - Grayson Garvin, LHP, Vanderbilt: He was among the biggest risers in the college ranks this season, going from a possible lefty-specialist future to that of a back-end starter. He's 6-6/220 but isn't exactly David Price. He pitches in the 90-92 mph range and his best off-speed offering is his change-up. His slider is a below-average pitch that fails to miss bats. His performance has exceeded his stuff, from the Cape Cod League ERA title to his SEC Pitcher of the Year honors.

60th overall - James Harris, Oakland Tech HS (CA): Harris is the best athlete the Rays drafted on day one. He has plus, if not plus-plus speed which helps him profile as a good centerfielder, even with below-average arm strength. He's very patient at the plate in his attempt to get on base any way he can to use his speed. He has a ways to go offensively, though, and will not be a guy to move quickly through the system. He has a very high ceiling, but may have been an overdraft in the supplemental round.

For more of my thoughts on day one, check out DRaysBay tomorrow morning!