Continuing on with our prospect per day. Today: OF Ty Morrison.
Ty Morrison showed very much progress - month for month - in his full season debut in 2010. He very much showed what he can do with his excellent speed on the basepaths (58 SB, 85.2% SB%). This progress, compared with scouting reports (e.g.: here and here as well as in Kevin's Rays Prospects Guide in '11) which suggest of him being able to develop into a top-of-the-order-hitter (plus hit tool, excellent speed, average plate discipline), made me very much looking forward to his '11 season.
Unfortunately, he was hurt for the first half of the season. After that, he didn't show much development in his 67 games in the Florida State League. That's the same history (playing well in A-ball, then being hurt most of the season in A+ ball) another very talented Rays minor league center fielder (while on a much higher level, talent and production wise) had two years ago. Desmond Jennings played very well in A-ball in 2007 (.866 OPS) and then was hurt for most of '08 (only 24 games, .776 OPS). I remember myself hoping for the cautious Rays to nevertheless move him up to Montgomery in '09. And they did, with Jennings responding very well to this move. I hope - while it has to be remembered that Ty Morrison, especially considering his approach at the plate, is not Desmond Jennings II - that Morrison will be promoted to AA in '12. His hit tool is fine, his speed is fine and he even showed some power when healthy. The only - while legit - question mark is the plate discipline. I hope - and belief - that he can respond well to AA pitching and that he could follow up the progress he made in A-ball next year in Montgomery. What do you guys think? Should Morrison start in A+ or AA?
I say AA, but who knows. He is a great ball player as long as he stays healthy so I say give him a chance there. Who do u think will be the outfielders for charlotte and bg? It will be interesting to see I think. Will Mahtook start in Charlotte or BG? I think with the way he has been playing in the AFL you have to start him in charlotte.
ReplyDeleteThe A+ and A-ball OF situation is very unpredictable from the outside.
ReplyDeleteA+: Kiermaier, Rogers, Glaesmann, Tinoco, Mahtook(?)
A: Mahtook(?), Vettleson(?), Sale(?), Carter, Quinonez, Dixon(?)
Very interesting to see who'll play where!
I'm hoping Mahtook starts in A+. I think he could definetly handle it. Start him in one of the corners and take the conservatve route and start Morrison in A+ at center. I would rather make sure Morrison can hit A+ before promoting him, unless the Rays trust his hit tool that much.I like Vettleson starting in A, but another conservative pick, I would start Sale in HV. I know he might have been bothered by a wrist injury last year, but even if healthy, they need to make sure he is ready and isnt overmatched in A-ball. It's not like we need to rush him or anything, I say let him take his time.
ReplyDeleteRe Sale and BG vs HV: I don't think the issue is so much the difference in talent level between the NY-Penn and Midwest leagues, it's the length of the season and number of other guys at that level.
ReplyDeleteBG starts in early April, and HV in mid-June, so 60+ more games for BG. For an OF that's not a problem, want him to get as much work as possible (unlike a catcher or starter moving up from HV).
As far as competition, the whole HV outfield is basically gone. That leaves room at BG for guys from Princeton (Sale and Vettleson, maybe Dixon but I doubt that) and for BG repeats (probably Glaesmann). And of course Mahtook at either BG or Charlotte.
Unless Mahtook starts at BG, Glaesmann repeats, and Vettleson jumps from Princton, I don't see how Sale doesn't go along with Vettleson. I could even see all 4 in BG with a rotating DH. I'm just not at all sold that Mahtook will start in Charlotte. Would think Glaesmann at Charlotte over Mahtook. Any way you look at it BG should have a great OF next year, at least to start.
Lots of top hitting prospect from HS(like Morrison, Glaseman, Bailey) entered his first full-seasons after spending two short seasons, whether they performed well there or not.
ReplyDeleteI think it's reasonable because of Rule V draft clock and logjam of lots of draftee and Latin prospect.
Once again, it looks like the top picks from Princeton will probably jump over Hudson Valley and head to Bowling Green. Oh, well, can't do anything about it, except hope HV gets some good picks- that sign- next season.
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately for the NY-Penn League that's not just a thing of the Rays organization. (Nearly) every organization is putting their top prospects in rookie ball or full-season A ball ... and I can see why.
ReplyDeleteThe best college draftees immidiately play in full season ball as they have the talent for copeting at this level. The top HS draftees start in rookie ball. And then they need plate appearances or innings (up to a limit). And there are much more plate appearances possible in full season ball.
So Schwaner, Lyerly, and Caminero are pretty much screwed in the outfield lol. Schwaner was in BG last year and did struggle he hit around .230 I think. Lyerly was the only HV outfield that didn't get cut and was moved to BG at the end of the year. Caminero did really well last year in princeton I would think he would go to BG before Sale, but not vettleson, vettleson needs to be in BG he has proven he can hit.
ReplyDeleteWe were just looking at the primary starters/prospects people talk about, there will be 4th and 5th OFs too. Especially at BG all the players get regular playing time. I've been critical of Brady Williams for various things, but one thing I feel he excels at is managing the roster/lineups. Last year I logged every lineup for every game and was impress at how he rotated players through positions and DH and gave everyone a legitimate chance to prove themselves. (Except of course Lyerly at the end of the year :)). Which is important for two reasons: give 'backups' a shot to prove themselves, and give 'starters' regular rest as they adjust to the full-season schedule. I would expect more of the same in 2012.
ReplyDeleteAnd donot forget Kes Carter either in the whole BG outfield talk. I bet he goes to there which would add another player in the mix.
ReplyDeleteA+ Mathook (He has played too well in the AFL for the rays not to start him there) Rogers, Kiermaier, Tinoco, and I wouldn't be surprise if Carter goes there as well.
ReplyDeleteA Vettleson, Glaseman, Cameriero, Lyerly, and Schwaner (Not sure about him and Lyerly though, they may get cutted....Just too many good outfielders in the organization. Hopefully not, but just doesn't looked good for those guys)
A- Sale, Dixon, Quiononez
No way Dixon and Sale will start in A ball. I think they start the season in HV and if they do well they will get bumped up and replace those that are not performing well.
Overall who is the most toolsy outfielder in the minors in PC BG HV...Glaesmann still have strongest arm in the system
ReplyDeletePrinceton I would say Vettleson. This guy can flat out play. Can hit and make the big plays. I like this kid a lot.
ReplyDeleteHudson Valley well the only outfielder left is Lyerly. He has well above average speed. Turns singles into triples in 2 pitches.
BG is a little tougher I would say Rogers or Tinoco. Rogers has above average speed and Tinoco can hit for average.
I saw Malm playing OF during instruction league and he has a cannon
ReplyDeleteMalm Threw mid 90s at Bishop Gorman.
ReplyDeleteIf simply talking about tools (and not present stuff), it seems to be
ReplyDelete- Josh Sale (power tool), Josh Vettleson (hit and run tool) in Princeton
- Todd Glaesmann (both hit and power tool) and Cody Rogers/Kevin Kiermaier (run tool) in Bowling Green.
- Craig Lyerly (run tool) and Kes Carter (hit and power tool) in Hudson Valley.
I'm not sure about the arm and the fielding.
Kiermaier may have a better gun than Malm ?
ReplyDeleteDevelopmentally, Morrison should start the first half of the season @ Charlotte. He is only 21. The bat is a question mark, needs to learn how to hit the breaking ball before he gets to AA. Big jump between the stuff he will see between those levels
ReplyDelete