Prospect A to Z: Ryan Carpenter

Just a quick note before everyone goes and places Grayson Garvin ahead of Ryan Carpenter in their prospect rankings based on draft position...

2011 college stats
Garvin (SEC) - 13-2 2.48 era 112.2 ip 98 h 25 bb 101 so
Carpenter (WCC) - 8-2 2.63 era 96 ip 72 h 33 bb 107 so

2010 Cape Cod stats
Garvin - 36.2 ip 18 h 3 er 12 bb 37 so
Carpenter - 38.2 ip 32 h 11 er 10 bb 39 so

Birthdate
Garvin 10/27/89
Carpenter 8/22/90

Scouting reports (BaseballAmerica draft database)
Garvin - Garvin has performed as well as any Division I pitcher over the last calendar year. He was the Cape Cod League's ERA champion last summer at 5-0, 0.74 with 37 strikeouts in 37 innings. In the spring, he was 11-1, 2.08 and was a perfect 9-0 in Southeastern Conference play until his last start of the regular season. He was named SEC pitcher of the year. Garvin's performance stems from his size, solid stuff and ability to pitch off his fastball. At 6-foot-6, 220 pounds, he gets a good angle on his fastball, pitching downhill, coming inside effectively at 90-92 mph and reaching 94-95 on occasion. His fastball velocity should be a tick above-average as a pro, and he uses his fastball well to set up his solid-average changeup, which has solid fade when he turns it over. His slurvy slider is below-average and rarely generates swings and misses, which limits his upside for many scouts, and he may wind up throwing more of a cutter eventually. Garvin is considered a safe pick, and his summer performance could push him into the first or supplemental first round despite his short breaking ball.

Carpenter - Gonzaga lefthander Ryan Carpenter has been an enigma for scouts. He's 6-foot-5 and 225 pounds and has touched 97 mph in the past, though he has been around 89-92 early in starts this year and even as low as 84. He had mediocre results his first two years at Gonzaga, though he was always impressive in summer ball against wood bats. In 2009, he led the Alaska League in strikeouts, and he came within five whiffs of leading the Cape Cod League last year. His time in the Cape helped him trust his fastball more, and he's working off it primarily for the first time this year. Statistically, Carpenter had his best year by far, going 8-2, 2.62 even though his stuff has been down. Carpenter also throws a big curveball, a slider that shows flashes of being a plus pitch and a changeup. The team that drafts Carpenter will be hoping that his size and relative youth will allow the stuff they've seen in the past to come back.

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Carpenter had worse (but not by a ton) college stats once you adjust for competition, very similar Cape Cod rate stats (strikeouts and walks per inning), is 10 months younger, has flashed better stuff in the past but still succeeded with "down" stuff, not to mention 23.2 excellent innings with Hudson Valley (26 strikeouts, 4 walks, 2 earned runs). Just sayin'.