For my rankings I stuck with my approach from last time in order to minimize the subjectivity in the rankings. I give points to every (well, not every, 114 overall) player in the system. I give points (between 0 and 10) for TALENT, STATS, LEVEL OF PLAY and RELATIVE AGE. Then I weigh those criterions (right now: talent: 0.545 | stats: 0.25 | level of play: 0.114 | relative age: 0.091). I'm very happy that 3 of those 4 criterions are calculated automatically - and therefore - objective. The values for relative age (in contrast to the age-level of the league a player is in), level of play (which means the MiL-level a player was this season, e.g.: A+ oder A+/AA) and stats (measured by wOBA/FIP; a weight of 0.6 for every IP/PA in '12, 0.3 for every IP/PA in '11, 0.1 for every IP/PA in '10; and some automatic regression to the average value (5) for small sample sizes) are calculated automatically. Therefore only the talent-criterion (ceiling + probabilities of reaching it) is subject to subjectivity.
So ... enough chit-chat. I only want to add, that the rankings are very, very volatile with no clear #1, #2 ... prospect in the system. A slight change in any category (especially talent) makes up for a significant jump in the rankings. Here are the rankings with some thoughts to every selection:
- Joshua Sale (off-season ranking on my list: 15) - overall grade: 7.568 (stats: 6.91 | talent: 9.0 | level of play: 3.0 | relative age: 6.49) Who thought that would happen (not even Idid). His excellent '12 season and the lack of a true #1 prospect catapult him right at the top of my list. But, it's by far not an as clear-cut selection as last season. With this overall grade, he only would have been ranked 4th in the off-season (Moore: 9.688, Lee: 7.875, Torres: 7.663)
- Hak-Ju Lee (2) - overall grade: 7.405 (stats: 5.16 | talent: 8.5 | level of play: 7.0 | relative age: 7.52) This season has nothing been but a disappointment so far. Nevertheless, his ceiling as above average SS, solid '10 and '11 seasons and relative youth for a high level put him into 2nd place.
- Chris Archer (4) - 7.340 (5.75 | 7.5 | 9.0 | 8.68) He is (very) slowly turning a bad start to the season around. Improving his shaky control still is the key to his future as a starter, though.
- Enny Romero (5) - 7.257 (6.57 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 7.51) Shaky control, but an even higher ceiling than Archer. He hasn't improved as much as hoped before the season, but hasn't been terrible either.
- Taylor Guerrieri (12) - 7.179 (5.00 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 8.71) My gut tells me to place him higher than this and I've checked the numbers a couple of times. They look accurate and hold my back from putting too much faith into a pitcher who hasn't pitched one inning of professional ball. Could easily jump atop the list with dominating outings, though.
- Mikie Mahtook (7) - 7.145 (5.79 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 5.42) Solid - no more, no less - season which feels a bit disappointing.
- Brandon Guyer (6) - 7.111 (8.43 | 6.0 | 10.0 | 6.54) Without shoulder surgery he would have been at 3.
- Tim Beckham (9) - 7.078 (5.31 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 10.00) He is still carryied by his high level of play and relative young age.
- Tyler Goeddel (16) - 7.010 (5.92 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 9.08) Solid, but decreasing performances, make the star of April still look promising. Keep your eyes at his approach at the plate, though. There is lots of work to be done, but, fortunately, youth is on his side.
- Alex Colome (8) - 6.758 (5.47 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 5.55) He kind of has become the best Rays pitching prospect nobody talkes about.While only having pitched 25.2 innings this season, a 2.46 FIP and 11.92 K/9 are excellent.
- Drew Vettleson (10) - 6.749 (6.88 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 6.57) Very solid ceiling and season nearly make him a top-10 prospect once again. Fun fact: 2011 in Princeton: 10.1 BB%, 19.9 K%. 2012 in Bowling Green: 10.1 BB%, 19.8 K%.
- Felipe Rivero (24) - 6.723 (7.75 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 6.89) "Way too low", my stomach screams. My brain and method say, though: "Give him a bit more time to prove himself as legitimate SP-prospect before moving him more up". He jumped from 24 (off-season) to 12. That's not bad.
- Jeff Malm (19) - 6.684 (8.23 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 5.14) Is he the answer to the Rays' search for their first baseman of the future? He still is about 3 years away and not without flaws (e.g.: high K% ... which is not unusual for a power hitter, though).
- Derek Dietrich (11) - 6.591 (7.07 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 4.81) He continues to perform well, but is it enough if (when) he has to move away from short?
- Alex Torres (3) - 6.567 (5.13 | 6.5 | 9.0 | 7.87) We were afraid that he couldn't find enough control in order to remain a starter. But, nobody thought he'd implode like that (9.16 BB/9!!!).
- Richie Shaffer (-) - 6.391 (5.00 | 8.0 | 2.5 | 5.43) It's very tough to rank a guy who hasn't performed yet with this method. I always give them a 5 in the stats-category. But, should he hit as expected (above average with at least 150 PA's) in Hudson Valley (where he may be assigned to after signing) he should enter or at least knock on the top-10.
- Ryan Brett (18) - 6.385 (7.44 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 7.02) Only the lack of power and a high ceiling are holding him back. He is solid in every other aspect (while he could walk more than he does this season) and he can hit.
- Ryan Carpenter (27) - 6.270 (8.75 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 5.16) When removing his two worst outings this season, he has the following stat-line: 68 IP, 53 H, 16 ER (2.12 ERA), 8 BB, 62 K. Potential and pin-point control are there.
- Oscar Hernandez (14) - 6.229 (10.00 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 9.15) Very tough to rank. I'm very eager to see him play in Princeton!
- Jake Hager (29) - 6.187 (3.45 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 9.82) Hager has improved a lot over the course of this season (.493 OPS in April, .711 in May, .834 in June). He could be ranked much higher in the off-season.
- Lenny Linsky (22) - 6.150 (6.71 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 5.20) Hasn't yet pitched this season.
- Josh Lueke (-) - 6.118 (7.70 | 5.0 | 9.0 | 4.87) Solid in AAA. Could have a successful career in a major league bullpen.
- Parker Markel (13) - 6.042 (6.70 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 5.29) Not improving strikeout-numbers made me decrease his talent-value. Therefore, he fell despite a solid FIP this season.
- Blake Snell (-) - 6.010 (7.39 | 6.0 | 1.5 | 7.91) Will play in Princeton this season. Updated - and positive - reports about his potential as a starter made him jump into the top 30.
- Brandon Martin (30) - 5.959 (5.53 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 9.46) Will also be in Princeton.
- C.J. Riefenhauser (-) - 5.884 (8.22 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.87) Excellent in Port Charlotte this season, especially against lefties. Future loogy?
- Ty Morrison (20) - 5.839 (4.89 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 7.28) While he looks better than last year, the plate discipline is (yet) not good enough for a future as a leadoff hitter.
- Wilking Rodriguez (-) - 5.745 (5.43 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 6.01)
- Todd Glaesmann (-) - 5.698 (5.39 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 5.10) A strong performance in the off-season (Australia) and improving performances in Bowling Green make him jump into the top 30.
- Albert Suarez (28) - 5.667 (5.36 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 5.35) While he is very inconsistent and posting low strikeout numbers, it's good to finally see him being healthy.
Some more analysis:
- The next 10 on the list: Bryan Augenstein, Kes Carter, Jake Thompson, Tyler Bortnick, Kyeong Kang, Jeff Ames, Johnny Eierman, Robinson Chirinos, Jacob Faria and Andrew Bellatti.
- Top prospects per criterion: talent: Josh Sale and Taylor Guerrieri (9); stats: Oscar Hernandez and Chris Rearick (10); level: Brandon Guyer, Robinson Chirinos, Jose Lobaton and Stephen Vogt (10); relative age: Tim Beckham, Damien Carrol, Nolan Gannon (each 10), Jake Hager (9.82)
- Risers: Josh Sale (15 --> 1), Felipe Rivero (24 --> 12), Ryan Carpenter (27 --> 18), Jake Hager (29 --> 20)
- Fallers: Alex Torres (3 --> 15), Parker Markel (13 --> 23)
- Surprises for me: Josh Sale at 1, Brandon Guyer at 3, Taylor Guerrieri only at 6, Tim Beckham still at 8, Felipe Rivero, Drew Vettleson and Richie Shaffer lower than expected
- Our prospect eligibility cutoffs are from Baseball America: 130 MLB at-bats, 50 MLB innings pitched, 30 MLB relief appearances.
- Not eligible anymore (and on off-season top-30 list): Matt Moore
- I have included the selected players in this years' 1st year player draft, even if they haven't signed with the organisation, yet.
Wow still no love for Spann best pitcher n Princeton last season maybe one day
ReplyDeleteI like him very much. Here are his grades:
Delete7.96 for his stats; 4 for talent (5 for #4 starter ceiling -1 for uncertainty); 2 for level of play in '12 (SS A); 5.13 for relative age. That's a grade of 4.866 overall and place 70 on the list (which includes '12 draft picks) between Jesse Hahn (68) and Mark Thomas (69) as well as Romulo Sanchez (71) and Ryan Reid (72).
That just shows the depth of the Rays farm system.
Burgi, shouldn't a guy with shoulder surgery be much lower than #3?
ReplyDeleteYou're totally right. How could I forget about the season-ending surgery. I've changed the talent-value (because of uncertainty due to the shoulder) from 6.5 to 6. He is 7th now.
DeleteOF Joel Camminero was just demoted to Hudson Valley,(right after BG clinched a playoff spot.) Is he just filling in until Arizona's OF Joey Rickerd signs, or will Rickerd possibly go to BG. Or, maybe HV will have 5 outfielders. FYI-Arizona is still in the College World Series.
ReplyDeleteLeaving out subjectivity is probably a good thing when you don't see any of them play, but in reality it limits the reliabity of the rankings.
ReplyDeleteThat's totally right and probably the main reason why I tried to leave it out. I try to - kind of - make a list which bases on facts and scouting/development reports. Maybe to find a way of putting the different factors of a "prospect" (tools, skills, uncertainty, position, defense, ...) together.
DeleteVery good site. However, I'm sort of surprised that Sale is first on the list. Young players are hard to read though, so hopefully you're right! Also, MacBook is not disappointing, he's just still learning the basics of pro ball. Give him time and he'll be in the outfield at the trop soon enough.
ReplyDeleteThank you.
DeleteMaybe I've had my hopes for Mahtook up too much. I give him all the time of the world and my grade for talent shows that I believe in him.
Surprised that Leuke came out ahead of Augenstein, but numbers are what they are. Torres continues to drop like a rock. Thought for a while they were testing him for a LOOGY role, but he still comes in for longer stretches. Bulls pitching coach doesn't seem to be having much luck getting inside his head. Interesting that not one hitter at AAA (not counting Beckham and Guyer, although Beckham will be back).
ReplyDeleteNice work.
I was very surprised as well. The 1 point I have him higher on the talent-scale makes the difference. I can be very wrong, but Lueke could potentially become a back-end of the pen-guy.
DeleteAs usual ....not including the organizations leader in Home Runs and RBI's.....playing at the top minor leaguer level....
ReplyDeleteWrigley is 56nd overall. He was one of the main reasons why I wanted to rate more objectively. Here are his numbers:
Deletestats according to wOBA: 6.7
talent: 4 (good bench bat ceiling, some uncertainty ... same grade as e.g.: Vogt, Figueroa)
level of play: 8 (= AA/AAA)
relative age: 4.93
overall grade: 5.214
Give me a break! You left off Flothe, Gomez and Partridge! Flothe is in top 5 in all catagories except K's, 1.04 whip...Gomez has been best pitcher for over a month at BG and Partridge has not had a bad outing!
ReplyDeleteHere they are (and I agree with you, that all 3 of them - especially Floethe and Partridge looked excellent in Bowling Green):
DeleteFloethe (51st overall):
stats: 8.84
talent: 4.5 (good #4 starter ceiling with some uncertainty, same as Bellatti, Barnese, Garvin)
level of play: 3.0
relative age: 2.69
overall: 5.250
Patridge (81st overall):
stats: 6.91 (according to FIP)
talent: 3.5 (excellent situational reliever ceiling, some uncertainty; same grade as e.g. Chris Rearick, Kirby Yates, Brandon Henderson, Austin Hubbard, Ryan Reid)
level of play: 3.0
relative age: 2.69
overall: 5.250
Thanks for the explanation. Why is one 51st and other 81st with same overall?
DeleteBecause I copied it, sorry:
DeletePartridge: 4.506 overall, relative age: 5.82 (all the others are correct)
Some of these guys on the list Suarez no. 30 because he is finally healthy...please! Good criteria! Potential means squat production is the key...when someone is successful everywhere he goes must mean something!!! When is Lenny going to pitch? Carpenter, why so much love! His velo is still below average but has pitchability against young hitters. I am not sure he will be successful higher up! Markel has the arm but has not learned to pitch...add 1 part Carpenter and 2 parts Markel! Not sold on Mikie M either, not enough pop and not as toolsy as everyone says. Agree with last post Floethe is under appreciated top 5 in all catagories in organization except K's...
ReplyDeleteSo which players have been "successful everywhere"? Cause I need to move them up my list.
DeleteAgree with you on Floethe, has done very well. But he's older than 4 of the starters a level higher at Charlotte, and 2 of the starters up in Montgomery. If you're gonna ding Carpenter for taking advantage of younger hitters, you need to do the same with Floethe.
Also agree on Mahtook, not sure why everyone is so amazed by him, a .707 OPS? The batting average is nice, but it's a whole lot singles, not much power so far. His numbers aren't much different from Ty Morrison, another athletic CF, except Morrison is younger and facing AA pitching. I think Mahtook will improve, but the love he's getting is crazy based on his performance so far.
Look at innings in each arm and Floethe is a relative baby! I don't mean to put Carpenter down he just gets squared up big time when he misses his spot. Batting average is still up there...Floethe's has been low all year...the Hot Rods probably love playing behind these starters, they all throw strikes. I have to say Carpenter's control is amazing for a big lefty. If he ever gets the velo back to 92-94 watch out...but he is 85-90 from what I've seen. Roberto Gomez is another under apreciated guy who should get some love.
DeleteSuarez being healthy is not the criterion. I just pointed it out.
DeleteYou have to look at the following:
Suarez has an overall grade of 5.667, Floethe of 5.250. That's not much of a difference. The list is very, very volatile but I have to do it somehow. The Rays like Suarez' ceiling and I trust them on this. Maybe I'm putting too much stock in past scouting reports, but I'll stick with the only subjective component I've for him for now.
Well BurGi, you were right, I wasn't expecting Sale! Always like the way you do the lists though, takes the 'who you like' factor out of it, which I'm guilty of.
ReplyDeleteKind of surprised to Lueke, thought age would kill him, and he's soooo close to ineligible, 28 MLB relief appearances. Didn't expect Linsky either.
Glad Wilking and Suarez made it, still have hopes for them.
I was very surprised as well (about Sale AND Lueke).
DeleteDidn't expect to see e.g. Eierman, Goetzman and also Floethe so low. There is lots and lots of talent outside the top 30 (especially those in Bowling Green and below): Just look at those names: Faria, Alexander, Floethe, Bellatti, Spann, Hahn, Ames, Harris Jr., ...)
Where was McEachern compared to Partridge? I focus on H/9, probably too much, but he's been great. Walk rate is high, but K rate is higher than Partridge and they've each only allowed 1 HR (more innings for Partridge).
ReplyDeleteI've McEachern as 100th on the list. I see Partridge to succeed with a higher probability than Jason due to (correct me if I'm wrong) slightly better stuff.
DeletePartridge also has a better FIP over the last 3 seasons and is younger.
Jason has similar stuff as Jake P from the other side and he is finally putting it together this year...should be much higher than 100th. He is throwing strikes and getting his breaking stuff over. He is dominating in BG. I believe if you flip the Charlotte staff for the second half with the BG staff Charlotte wins the second half. Leave the closers for each team where they are...
DeleteBurGi, do you have updated reports on McEachern? Here is a scouting report from last year at pennleaguereport.com:
Delete"He's a three-quarter guy with deception in his delivery. His fastball lacks sink or a ton of movement, but he hides the ball well and sits in the 93-94 range. He was throwing mostly strikes, and mostly fastballs for that matter, but was mixing in a curveball in which got hitters whiffing more times than not. There isn't much of a downhill plain to his pitches, but he gets on top of the ball and throws at a consistent arm slot.
He fastball was impressive, but it was mostly what he only threw. Although his curveball had some nice break, he didn't use it that often. With his delivery -- which can be a bit Justin Masterson-ish at times -- keeping him as a starter, especially lacking a good change up, might not be the smartest of moves for the Rays. He could probably be as effective, especially with the K's out of the pen. And his plus command would also fit in the pen. This is all just to suggest a prevention of a potential injury."
No, Michael. The Scouting Report in the Penn League Report is the last one I have of him as well, but by far the most incouraging one. Other news about him - since then - have only focused at his stats and not on his stuff. Future reports who suggested slightly weaker stuff than in the PennLeagueReport have held me back from being to euphoric about him in the "talent" criterion. Maybe I'm way too down on him.
DeleteBut, even an increase in the talent category by 1 point (then he would have the same grade there as e.g.: Lobstein, Spann, Kerrill, Augenstein, Koronis, Fleming) would only move him up to 87th on the list. That would be along guy like Isaias Velazquez and Brett Nommensen before as well as Cody Rogers and Robby Price behind him.
One more: Vogt vs Wrigley? And what age are you using for Yoel Araujo? I've always had 12/3/93, the Rays press guide has that, but milb.com has 12/3/92. I noticed on Saturday when I was doing the GCL roster. Not that he's doing well, but a year makes a difference at that level.
ReplyDeleteVogt is 46th | Wrigley 56th
DeleteOverall grade: 5.352 | 5.214 (very close!)
Stats: 6.17 | 6.7
Talent: 4 | 4
Level of play: 10 (AAA/MLB) | 8 (AA/AAA)
Relative Age: 5.41 | 4.93
Araujo: I've him born in '92. Fangraphs also has '92.
Great first inning for Ames in HV, BTW.
ReplyDelete2K's
I commend you on the work that you put into this list. I enjoyed it. If anyone was perfect on this stuff, they would be rich. Great work.
ReplyDeleteThank you very much.
Delete